A Few Super Cells Tomorrow!

Classic Super Cell Thunderstorm

SEVERE T-Storms

Tuesday Afternoon

There is a slight risk for SEVERE thunderstorms across the entire Tri-State area Tuesday afternoon especially across Northeast Missouri and West Central Illinois. Classic Super Cell thunderstorms are possible leading to large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two.

Convective Outlook

 ...PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...
   THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS
   LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
   IN ADVANCE OF THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  THIS IS
   EXPECTED...IN GENERAL...TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   FOR THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT COOLING
   ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY TO
   SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT OVERSPREADS THE
   PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
   AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS NARROW BROKEN
   CONVECTIVE BAND...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN INTO WEST CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY BASED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS IT SPREADS EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
  
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION /CAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED BENEATH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
   NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
   LEAST MODESTLY STRONG ALONG THIS AXIS...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER LOW
   AND MID-LEVEL JET CORES SHIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT THE SAME TIME... MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY INCLUDE A FEW
   SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
   NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BEFORE CONVECTION
   WEAKENS/DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

Gardening In March

Potatoes grow in dry soil South of Center, MO over the
weekend. The recent warm temperatures have
started the growing season nearly a month early.

Warm Temperatures    Prompt and Early

Growing Season

The recent record breaking heat that took us from Winter straight to Summer in a week caused trees to blossom and leaf, flowers to bloom, yards to green rapidly, and allowed many to start the gardening season very early. With little to no threat of a frost or freeze over the next 15 days now seems to be the perfect time to get the garden tilled and planted.

Anniversary of The Biggest Tornado To Hit The Area

F3 Tornado Spawns Twin Twisters Over Monroe County, MO. Rated At The Low End of F4 Winds On The Fujita Scale.

...VIOLENT TORNADO STRIKES PARTS OF MONROE COUNTY MISSOURI DURING
THE EVENING OF MARCH 12 2006 (MIDDLE GROVE...PARIS...MONROE CITY
TORNADOES)...

A DETAILED DAMAGE ASSESSMENT WAS COMPLETED OVER MONROE COUNTY
MISSOURI. THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT REVEALED THAT TWO TORNADIC DAMAGE
PATHS WERE UNCOVERED OVER MONROE COUNTY MISSOURI.

THE FIRST TORNADO ENTERED SOUTHWEST MONROE COUNTY MISSOURI FROM
RANDOLPH COUNTY APPROXIMATELY 11/2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLE GROVE
AT 933 PM CST. DAMAGE TO FARM STRUCTURES AND TREES WITHIN AND SOUTH
OF MIDDLE GROVE WERE RATED F1 ON THE FUJITA SCALE. THE DAMAGE TRACK
WAS 1/8 TO 1/4 MILE WIDE. THE TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE TORNADIC
SUPERCELL CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST MAINLY OVER RURAL AREAS 2
MILES SOUTH OF MADISON MISSOURI. ONE MOBILE HOME WAS COMPLETELY
DESTROYED WHILE A TWO STORY HOME SUSTAINED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE. THE DAMAGE WIDTH AT THIS LOCATION WAS 200 YARDS WHILE DAMAGE INTENSITY WAS RATED F2.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISON AND DESTROYED A SECOND MOBILE HOME. AT THIS TIME A SECOND TORNADO FORMED APPROXIMATELY 300 YARDS SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRST TORNADO AND SEVERELY DAMAGED A HOME. BOTH TORNADOES TRAVELED PARALLEL FOR ABOUT 100 YARDS UNTIL THE FIRST TORNADO (NORTHERN-MOST) LIFTED. THE DAMAGE PATHS OF EACH TORNADO WAS APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS WIDE. THIS TYPE OF TORNADIC EVOLUTION APPEARED TO BE SIMILAR TO FINDINGS DISCOVERED BY DR TED FUJITA WHEN SURVEYING THE APRIL 11 1965 PALM SUNDAY TORNADIC OUTBREAK NEAR ELKHART INDIANA. THE SECOND TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY LIFTED APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS SOUTH OF U.S. 24... ABOUT 3.5 MILES WEST OF PARIS MISSOURI. THE WIDTH OF THE DAMAGE AREA WHERE THE SECOND TORNADO LIFTED WAS 100 YARDS.

THIS FUNNEL TOUCHED DOWN AGAIN APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE NORTH OF PARIS
AND DESTROYED TWO HOMES JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 15 ON HIGHWAY 15 SPUR.
THE HOME NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 15 SPUR WAS WELL BUILT. A LARGE PICKUP
TRUCK FROM ONE HOMES WAS TOSSED OVER 100 YARDS INTO THE LIVING ROOM
OF THE SECOND STRONGER BUILT HOME ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SPUR. THE
HOME SOUTH OF THE SPUR WAS COMPLETELY LEVELED WHILE A SMALL PART OF
THE EASTERN AND THE NORTHERN WALLS OF THE STRONGER BUILT HOME
REMAINED STANDING. TWO MACHINE SHEDS NEAR THIS HOME WERE ALSO
COMPLETELY DESTROYED. DEBRIS FROM BOTH HOMES WAS DOCUMENTED OVER 1/2 MILE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DAMAGE INTENSITY WAS RATED THE LOWER END OF F4 AT THIS LOCATION WHILE THE DAMAGE AREA WAS 1/4 MILE WIDE. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER RURAL AREAS NORTHEAST OF PARIS AND APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 1.25 MILES NORTHWEST OF U.S. 24. TWO
MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED WHILE TWO OTHER HOMES
SUSTAINED SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. A WITNESS NEAR ONE OF THE HOMES
OBSERVED THE TORNADO WITH NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. THE DAMAGE
WAS RATED BETWEEN F2 AND F3 OVER THIS AREA WHILE THE DAMAGE WIDTH
WAS OVER 500 YARDS. NUMEROUS TREES WERE EITHER SNAPPED OR UPROOTED
OVER THESE AREAS. THE DAMAGE INTENSITY WEAKENED TO LOW END F1 AS IT
CROSSED HIGHWAY V OR APPROXIMATELY 1.5 MILES NORTH OF U.S. 24 BEFORE
LIFTING. DEBRIS FROM THE TORNADO WAS STILL OBSERVED 1 MILE NORTHEAST
OF HIGHWAY V. THE DAMAGE AREA ON HIGHWAY V WAS 75 TO 100 YARDS WIDE.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN A THIRD TIME 1.5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROE CITY AND MOVED THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF TOWN BEFORE LIFTING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES WERE DESTROYED ON THE NEAR WEST SIDE OF TOWN. A CHURCH SUSTAINED CONSIDERABLE ROOF AND SIDE DAMAGE AND A SECOND BUILDING SUSTAINED ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. THE DAMAGE AREA WAS 75 YARDS WIDE WHILE THE DAMAGE INTENSITY OVER THIS AREA WAS RATED BETWEEN F1 AND F2 INTENSITY ON THE FUJITA SCALE.


FUJITA SCALE

F0 40 - 72 MPH
F1 73 - 112 MPH
F2 113 - 157 MPH
F3 158 - 206 MPH
F4 207 - 260 MPH
F5 261 - 318 MPH                                             



At the time this tornado was rated F4 with wind speeds estimated of 207 mph or greater.
According to the new EF scale winds would of been 166 mph or greater.

In all the Tri-States experienced 12 tornadoes on March 12, 2006 as a part of a deadly outbreak to hit Missouri and Illinois.

Deadly tornado outbreak across Missouri and Illinois.
Ironically this outbreak followed an above normal
temperatures Winter much like we saw this past Winter.

Missouri Annual Tornado Drill

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=sirenqcmetro#faq1

Sirens  Scheduled To Sound Off Tuesday Afternoon During Missouri's Annual Severe Weather
Awareness Week





As a part of Missouri's severe weather awareness week a tornado drill is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Tuesday afternoon. The drill will be conducted state wide unless there is severe weather possible. The drill lasts for 3 minutes and gives each community the chance to test its warning system. Some communities conduct test on a monthly basis to ensure all sirens function properly and detect any problem areas. During an emergency situation such as a tornado or high winds 70-80 mph in some communities sirens sound for 3 minutes to warn the public of incoming severe weather.

Tornado May 30, 2008 In Center, MO

If you here the sirens going off in your community you should SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY on the lowest floor of your home or business (a basement is best if available) or an interior room away from windows. If you live in a mobile home you should abandon it and seek shelter in a sturdy structure such as an underground storm shelter or a community storm shelter. If in a vehicle do not try to outrun a tornado! Seek safety in a low lying area (under overpasses are not recommended) and cover the back of your head. There will not be an all clear signal. AM/FM radios, weather radios, and other news media should be followed to know when it is safe to leave shelter. If the siren sounds again after 3 minutes it means the warning has been extended or a tornado has been spotted and on the ground in your community. Remember tornadoes can form with little or no advanced warning and during a severe thunderstorm warning. Being aware of weather conditions and prepared in advance can help safe your life in the event of such a disaster occurring.