A Few Super Cells Tomorrow!

Classic Super Cell Thunderstorm

SEVERE T-Storms

Tuesday Afternoon

There is a slight risk for SEVERE thunderstorms across the entire Tri-State area Tuesday afternoon especially across Northeast Missouri and West Central Illinois. Classic Super Cell thunderstorms are possible leading to large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two.

Convective Outlook

 ...PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...
   THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS
   LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
   IN ADVANCE OF THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  THIS IS
   EXPECTED...IN GENERAL...TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   FOR THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT COOLING
   ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY TO
   SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT OVERSPREADS THE
   PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
   AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS NARROW BROKEN
   CONVECTIVE BAND...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN INTO WEST CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY BASED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS IT SPREADS EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
  
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION /CAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED BENEATH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
   NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
   LEAST MODESTLY STRONG ALONG THIS AXIS...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER LOW
   AND MID-LEVEL JET CORES SHIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT THE SAME TIME... MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY INCLUDE A FEW
   SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
   NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BEFORE CONVECTION
   WEAKENS/DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.